By Peter M. DeLorenzoDetroit. Since we’re in this giant holding pattern as we wait for the Grand Transition of our transportation fleet to begin, five words come to mind that we often use around here: It Won’t Be Long Now. In the past, these words were tossed around at auto shows by executives representing underperforming car companies as they promised that because of the new products they have coming over the next eighteen months or so, everything would get better. Alas, that wasn’t always the case for the car companies in question; in fact, it was a 50-50 proposition, at best. There’s no question in my mind that BEVs could suit most urban dwellers just fine, as long as they have access to home charging. But who’s kidding whom, here? The infrastructure to support the massive shift to electric vehicles just isn’t there. Yes, it is expanding by the day, but, really? We have a long, long way to go before it’s a real thing. (Hint: When you start seeing islands at your local gas stations set aside for charging, that’s when you’ll know that progress is being made on a charging infrastructure.) And let’s not forget the ugly reality of owning a BEV in colder climates. The range is reduced by half. Yes, by half. And that conjures three other words we like to use around here: Not. Very. Good. But, make no mistake, It Won’t Be Long Now has taken on a new meaning for the auto industry. The headlong rush into BEVs has become the quintessential quest for all involved. The VW Group, still moaning over the giant fraud it committed with its diesel emissions debacle – and the estimated $40 billion that it cost the company – is putting its full industrial might behind BEVs on a scale that has the rest of the industry shaking its head. As in, VW’s bet is such an all-in commitment that anything less than a sensational outcome could cripple the company for years to come. But undaunted, the rest of the industry is scaling up its own BEV plans as well. Every manufacturer is promising incredible BEVs that will push us into the future at a furious pace, or, It Won’t Be Long Now, on the grandest of scales.For consumers, the premise is that if we all wait long enough the sky will be bluer and the grass will be greener, and all things will come together as planned. Except we all know that is a not going to be the case. Because the “end of this year” as some manufacturers have promised will slide into the middle (or end) of 2024 at the earliest. And that’s not all. The large majority of this coming brace of new BEVs will start arriving well into ’24 and on into ’25 and ’26. So, actually, it will be a long while before we’re tripping over BEVs in this market. Wake me up in 2030 – it promises to be a blissful BEV Land by then.There are other words roiling around in my head this morning besides our favorite five. Words that have meaning well beyond what they suggest on the surface. For instance, I’m okay, which can mean everything from yes, I’m actually okay to, I am the furthest thing from being okay. Or, the classic, I’m fine, which usually means the direct opposite, especially between significant others. And then there’s the go-to, I’m good, which encompasses a vast spectrum of feelings.And there’s we’re taking it one day at a time. In standard sports speak this usually means substituting game for day. Yes, of course we’re taking it one day-game-series-quarter at a time. What else can the operatives in this business do? After all, what was a given yesterday may not even be a given today, let alone tomorrow. But that doesn’t prevent CEOs from waxing eloquently about how grand it’s sure to be in the EV Nirvana that’s right around the corner. Yet so far this has been a painful exercise in overpromising, while underdelivering by half. This simply isn’t sustainable, which is why even the Wall Street-types are starting to push back hard on the glowing statements being uttered by various CEOs about our EV Future. And when the Wall Street-types stop buying your shtick, then things are bound to get ugly in a hurry.Another personal favorite? One of the classic scenes in the Steven Spielberg film Catch Me If You Can has Leonardo DiCaprio – as the young master con artist Frank Abagnale – watching an old movie where the doctors on screen weigh in on a medical diagnosis with the words, “I concur.” DiCaprio’s character then employs the same words to great effect while posing as a young doctor in Georgia. The words I concur are succinct and convey an instant and emphatic meaning. We use the phrase often around here; in fact, it seems to come in handy on multiple occasions. Is this Grand Transition really happening? Yes, it is. Does anyone really know how it’s going to shake out? Not a chance. “A Hard Rain’s A Gonna Fall,” as Mr. Dylan said.I concur.And that’s the High-Octane Truth for this week.
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